Die aktuelle Vorhersage von Molly
EURO2016 Fish-Oracle – How does Molly make a prediction?
For Molly's predictions only software is used which has been developed as part of the interdisciplinary research project "Virtual Fish" (see Research). The software FishSim allows the presentation of animated, computer-generated 3D fish models of sailfin mollies (see Who is Molly?) in choice tests with live fish.
The virtual fish models swim automatically in a simulated virtual aquarium and are shown on two LCD monitors that are directly positioned to a test tank, in which Molly can swim around and look at both monitors. For each of the participating teams of EURO2016 a virtual 3D model was created using the software FishCreator. Each team fish carries the flag of the country as a body texture (see Figure 1). For each match, the respective fish models of teh teams will be simulated with FishSim and Molly has to choose between the two team fishes.
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During each of Molly's votes, two high-resolution cameras (Figure 2 and 3) track the position of Molly in the test tank in real-time. In front of each monitor is a choice zone (20 cm). When Molly swims into one of these zones, the time how long Molly remains in the respective zone is counted automatically. When Molly enters a choice zone, the respective virtual fish model "reacts" to the presence of Molly and follows her until she leaves the zone again. The virtual model fish interacts with the live fish. The team in front of which Molly spent most of her time, is preferred by her. Molly's preference for one of the team fishes shows who she predicts will be the winner of the match.
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Figure 1. Virtual 3D fish models of the EURO2016 teams. For each participating team a 3D model of a sailfin molly was created. Body texture of the fish models is replaced by the countries flags of each team. Tail fin and dorsal fin as well as body shape and size are the same for all models.
Figure 2. Visual output of Molly's prediction. Schematic diagram of the test tank consisting of an aquarium and two LCD monitors on which the competing teams are shown as animated virtual fish models. The position of Molly in the aquarium is tracked in real-time by two cameras and visualized in an output window on the computer (see below).
Figure 3. Visual output of the fish tracking. On the left side, a schematic overview of the test tank is shown. The colored dots indicate the position of Molly (red), team fish A (white) and team fish B (green). A counter automatically counts the time when Molly swims into one of the choice zones. The two smaller windows below, A and B, show what Molly can actually see on the two monitors. On the right side of the output, you can see the camera views from above and front of the tank. A white box constantly marks the position of Molly in the aquarium.
Running the vote:
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The position of each team fish (left or right monitor) is determined by tossing a coin.
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Molly has time to explore the test tank (10 min; not shown in the video)
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Molly is placed in a transparent cylinder in the middle of the test tank. The virtual fish models of both teams are shown and Molly has 2 min time to watch the presentation.
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Molly is released from the cylinder and has 5 min time to predict which of the two teams A or B will win the match.
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Result of the prediction: The team that is preferred by Molly, wins the match!
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Special case group stage:
Like in the real matches, Molly can predict that a match will end in a tie (when the score is even) during the group stage. To count as a tie, the time difference between the two virtual team fish has to be lower than 30 seconds.
Stay up-to-date with Molly's current predictions!
